Thursday 16 October 2008

Three Trillion invested in markets and still no bank lending

Governments around the globe have invested Three Trillion in bailing out banks and underwriting their trading with each other. Central Banks in Europe, Asia and America have pumped many billions more into money markets to allow banks to lend to each other, combined with underlying Government guarantees of interbank trading. There has been a co-ordinated global reduction in interest rates by 0.5%, and may be more to follow.
The net result of this has been an initial rallying of stock markets around the globe and rises in the value of some bank stock.
What has not happened is a movement in banks trading with each other, or the passing on of that 0.5% interest rate cut.
Banks are simply not interested in lending at present. This could cause catastophic harm to world economies, which is why we are at present seeing stock markets around the globe crashing. The Nikkei was this morning down 11%, its biggest drop in history. London has opened sharply slower this morning and it is expected that the Dow will be marked down later when trading starts in New York.
So what more can be done. Well I hate to crow but I did forewarn of this last week. Central banks and Governments must now do more, and if that is not enough they must do more again. The Central Banks must try to find a link between their interest rates and the global bankers willingness to lend to each other. Without credit finance being made available to homeowners and businesses, world recession which we are in , will be deeper and harder than needs be neccessary, and indeed could escalate into a global depression.
It is a struggle that the Central Banks cannot afford to lose, but what this may cost yet, nobody knows.

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